July 28th 2023, 12:25:39 am
(about 2 months ago)
North American equity markets are on fire on the back of better than expected second-quarter earnings report and the US Fed which may be done with interest rate hikes and sees no economic recession looming.
In the US, S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq are up 19.7% and 36.71% in 2023 mostly led by giant technology and discretionary companies. The Dow Jones industrial index is on a winning streak of soaring for 15 consecutive days which is unprecedented since 1987.
Canadian equities have not been equally shiny with S&P/TSX Composite adding 6.15% in 2023. The more complicated situation in Canada with over 500,000 new people coming in each year and core inflation remaining sticky is causing problems.
Though the commodity prices including oil support the economy, the tremendous supply-side shortage mainly in housing is putting pressure on the Canadian economy. Analysts have continuously warned of the potential underperformance of Canadian equity compared to the US, especially as the Canadian market lacks major tech allocation.
On the US side, Q2 earnings are rolling out, showing companies delivering on the high expectations, justifying their high valuations and ability to pass through higher inflation and prices to customers. As expected yesterday, the US Central Bank increased the interest rate by another 0.25% to 5.5% which is the highest policy rate in the past 30 years.
The Fed Chair, however, noted that there is a chance of finally pausing as the inflation is meaningfully coming down and there is now no forecast of recession by the Central Bank’s staff.
The combination may lead to a no recession and eventual move of inflation back to target, giving equities more room to grow.