November 6th 2023, 6:42:25 pm
(about a month ago)
The first signs of cracks in the US economy
North American stock markets are set for the best week in over a year after three months of equity slump as both the US and Canada's central banks left the rates unchanged and the appearance of cracks in the US economy is giving comfort to the markets that there are no more rate hikes and cuts will start in 2024.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq soared 5.93% and 6.69% respectively and Canada's main benchmark S&P/TSX Composite added over 6% in the past five trading days.
The signs of weakness in the economy and job market convinced central bankers to leave rates unchanged to combat lingering inflation. There is now a 100% chance priced in the futures rates to be cut by June 2024 in the US.
The prospects of unchanged rates and less hawkishness are a positive sign of the valuation of stock markets and their gains. The US service sector showed the weakest report in five months, job growth slowed, unemployment edged up to 3.9%, nonfarm payrolls increased 150,000 last month which is much lower compared to a month before and wage growth slowed. All the signs that higher rates are working and the economy is slowing down. T
The energy prices were also another concern that could keep inflation higher for longer but for now, the war between Israel and Palestine does not seem to be impacting the energy prices unless more players like Iran or Saudi Arabia decide to step in.
Overall, equities are expected to finish the year with considerable performance with the recent gains.